SI DIGEST 12-31-98
SkeptInq@aol.com
Thu, 31 Dec 1998 14:52:34 EST
SKEPTICAL INQUIRER ELECTRONIC DIGEST
December 31, 1998
SI Electronic Digest is the biweekly e-mail news update of the Committee for
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and Reason. The Jan/Feb 1999 issue features a Special Report on Armageddon
and the Prophets of Doomsday.
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In this week's SIDIGEST:
--OPINION: Fears of the Apocalypse
--REVIEW: Fox's "World's Greatest Hoaxes: Secrets Finally Revealed"
--Failed Psychic Predictions Featured in SF Chronicle Editorial
--Council for Media Integrity Stock Fund Continues to Grow
--CONFERENCE: Science Meets Alternative Medicine, Feb. 26-28
OPINION: FEARS OF THE APOCALYSE
by Paul Kurtz
Chairman, Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the
Paranormal; Professor Emeritus of Philosophy, State University of New York at
Buffalo
As we approach the year 2000 we are surrounded by prophets of doom who
predict that terrible disasters await us. Is the world about to end? Are we
living in the last days of civilization? Will the human species and the planet
earth be engulfed in fire storms, earthquakes, floods, or be destroyed by the
impact of an asteroid? Obviously the year 2000 has special significance in
these scenarios, for it marks the beginning of a new millennium and has been
adopted as the deadline for many end-time prophets.
But we may ask: Does the new Millennium start January 1, 2000 or 2001? The
calendar we use begins at year 1 instead of 0 -- for a zero was left out in
the transition from B.C. to A.D. Thus, a century does not begin with a double-
zero year, but ends with it. If this is the case, the new century and
millennium begin with an 01-year, not an 00-year.
The Western world measures the beginning of the new millennium by the alleged
birth of Jesus Christ, but most non-Christian cultures in the world differ in
their calendar origin. The Chinese year in 1998 is 4696, the Hebrew calendar
5760. For the Muslims, the calendar begins in 622 A.D., when Muhammad went
from Mecca to Medina, and 1998 is actually the year 1420. Thus, January 1st,
2000 or 2001 is really a meaningless non-event -- an expression of Western
socio-cultural prejudice, of no special significance in the nature of things.
Nonetheless, there is a perennial concern for the future. Human beings always
wish to peer ahead and know what will ensue tomorrow or next year or in the
next century. Many of these interests are based on hype and/or expectations of
a better and more promising world. But there are often predications of gloom,
and great apprehension. For many the Apocalypse seems to be almost a wish
fulfillment. The mundane world lacks the drama that a fertile apocalyptic
imagination produces.
Secular predictions, those not based in religious or New Age belief, often
gain the greatest attention and credibility in the media. We currently are
enjoying a period of great economic optimism, as stock markets soar in the
U.S. and Europe. The bulls dash forward with rosy forecasts. Some people even
predict a long boom in which the economic cycle has been overcome.
By contrast, the bears focus on the negative: The year-2000 computer bug will
wreak havoc everywhere, oil shortages will appear, inflation will re-ignite,
and the Dow will plummet from 10,000 to 6,000 in a short period of time.
Probably the most frightening secular prognostications are environmental
scenarios of runaway population growth and devastating ecological pollution.
Demographers told us only a decade ago that population growth would increase
exponentially and that there was no way to stop it. But, in many parts of the
world, there has been a significant decrease in the rate of population growth.
Many maintained only twenty years ago that by 1980 the atmosphere would be so
polluted that we would need to wear gas masks year-round -- not even in Los
Angeles has this occurred! Ecologists have warned that we would deplete our
natural resources and run out of oil, gas, and other fossil fuels in the near
future. In the long run they are probably correct, but new resources have been
discovered and new sources of energy developed.
Overhanging all of this is the sword of Damocles -- nuclear energy. Nuclear
fears have engulfed large sectors of society. Anything related to radiation is
considered diabolical, and greatest of all is the fear of a thermonuclear
holocaust. We are admonished on all sides that death stares us in the face and
that some miscalculation will inevitably trigger a worldwide nuclear war.
A second area for doomsday prophecies are religiously based. Indeed, we today
find hundreds of millions of people who interpret the world primarily through
a biblical lens and see their own end-of-the-world scenarios. The message that
prophets are preaching is one of a millennial Armageddon. They are truly
convinced that we are living in "the last days," and they view earthquake
tremors, wars, and rumors of war as signs of the impending apocalyptic
disaster. Indeed, this generation, many of them insist, is the last
generation, and this was all foretold in the Old and New Testaments.
A third kind of doomsday prophesy is that offered by followers of the New Age
movement. The Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the
Paranormal (CSICOP) have examined a great number of the paranormal claims that
are proliferating today from psychics, fortune tellers, seers, and gurus of
various kinds. These include the failed predictions of Edgar Cayce, "the
Sleeping Prophet," who warned of a massive shifting of the poles in the years
2000-2001. They involve a number of suicide cults, such as the UFO-related
"Heaven's Gate" and the French-Swiss-Canadian space-age religion, "The Order
of the Solar Temple." There are also numerous astrological predications of
disaster due to planetary alignments, and psychics are now having a field day
in their Armageddon prophecies.
We live in a highly developed scientific and technological society. We face
awesome problems. If we are to solve them, we must draw upon the best critical
intelligence available. We need to use our rational powers, not abandon them.
In free societies anyone is entitled to his convictions. Yet democracy
presupposes an educated citizenry. When apocalyptic faith is intermingled with
ideology, it can have deleterious social, political, and military
consequences.
As a world society fueled in progress by science and reason, we have a
responsibility to examine those claims being made about our collective future,
whether they are based upon so-called revealed prophecies or not, and to
submit them to empirical criticism. There is thus a compelling need for
critical examination of the prophecies of doom -- whether secular, religious,
or New Age -- for they have serious implications for the world at large.
______________________________
REVIEW: FOX'S "WORLD'S GREATEST HOAXES FINALLY REVEALED"
by Ben Radford
Skeptical Inquirer Managing Editor
On Monday, December 28, 1998, the Fox network broadcast "World's Greatest
Hoaxes: Secrets Finally Revealed," part of a series of sensationalistic
exposés. TheFox network is, of course, infamous for its high-rated but lowbrow
specials and series programming hawking every manner of paranormal and
pseudoscientific claim, as well as such cerebral and upscale fare as Guinness
World Records featuring the world's biggest tumor.
It is refreshing, then, to see Fox feature a skeptical take on paranormal
subjects that the Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the
Paranormal have been addressing for decades. The special was narrated by Lance
Henrickson, who himself has appeared in many paranormal productions such as
the film Omen 2: Damien, as a psychic detective in the television series
Millennium, and a slew of grade-B horror films.
The usual Fox staples of hyperbole, contradicting assertions, and flat-out
incorrect statements were all present. For example, in the first five minutes,
the claim was made that the 1938 "War of the Worlds" panic was the result of a
hoax. Orson Welles' most famous broadcast was not a hoax at all; it was indeed
a panic followed by mass hysteria, but there was no intent to deceive (see
"The Martian Panic Sixty Years Later," Skeptical Inquirer 22(6),
November/December 1998).
The special began with footage of alleged Bigfoot sightings. The first was the
famous 1967 Patterson film, followed by two additional, even more highly
suspect videos allegedly of other Bigfoot-type creatures. Later segments
featured photos taken at Loch Ness in Scotland; UFO footage filmed by Billy
Meier at his Swiss ranch; and of course the much-hyped"Alien Autopsy" segment
(supposedly from the Roswell, New Mexico saucer crash) broadcast in 1995.
It takes brass, and a lot of it, for Fox to loudly tout the "Alien Autopsy" as
a hoax when Fox itself was instrumental in feeding it to the American public
in the first place. Fox's role in promoting the faked footage on their special
"Alien Autopsy: Fact or Fiction?" on August 28 and September 4, 1995 was
conveniently and repeatedly glossed over [see Skeptical Inquirer 19(6),
November/December 1995].
Fox returned to their roots with two faked segments, one depicting a lake
monster and the other a scene showing UFOs flying over a city and beach. They
were broadcast, the narrator said, to show how convincing faked video footage
can be. The point might have been more persuasive, however, had they asked a
few teenagers on a limited budget to create the hoaxes. I don't think anyone
was surprised that the multi-million dollar Fox network could create (or
commission) such "impressive" fakes.
CSICOP was nowhere to be seen, but interviewees did include skeptic Kal Korff,
who spoke about the Billy Meier photographs and also commented on the
Patterson film. Korff's book, Spaceships of the Pleiades: The Billy Meier
Story, was reviewed in the March/April 1996 issue of Skeptical Inquirer. A
special effects consultant for the film Jurassic Park was also on hand to
discuss how videotape and film can be faked using computers and various
techniques.
The program left its viewers with the impression that much of what was
presented was newly discovered and examined by the vanguards of truth, Fox
Broadcasting. Yet Skeptical Inquirer readers got stories on the hoaxes years
or even decades earlier. The famous 1934 "surgeon's photograph" of a head and
neck in Loch Ness was reported to be a hoax in 1994 [SI 18(4), Summer 1994];
some of the other "Nessie" photos shown in the Fox special were examined and
questioned in this magazine fifteen years ago [SI 9(2), Winter 1984-1985]. And
claims that Billy Meier's UFO photographs were hoaxes also first appeared in
Skeptical Inquirer nearly twenty years ago [see SI 4(4), Summer 1980]. As
skeptical as the Fox special was, the network was a little late to the table.
Despite several flaws, the broadcast was generally well done, and their
investigation of the Patterson Bigfoot film, though cursory, was the best I'd
seen. They also tracked down one of the actors in a forerunner film to the
"Alien Autopsy" footage, who detailed how and where the scenes were filmed. On
balance, the Fox special probably helped skeptics much more than it hurt them.
Although it was not of the same caliber as a special that appeared several
months earlier on scams (narrated by Judd Nelson), it was nonetheless a
valuable teaching tool for the public. What a shame that skeptical subjects
must be packaged like sensational paranormal fare to gain an audience of
millions.
____________________
Ben Radford
FAILED PSYCHIC PREDICTIONS FEATURED IN SF CHRONICLE EDITORIAL
It's that time of year again for the psychics to receive their grades for
1998, and the national media is delighted to hear that they've failed. Gene
Emery's annual accounting of failed psychic predictions has gained notice from
dozens of radio stations, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, and is featured in
an editorial in today's San Francisco Chronicle. To read the editorial go to:
<A HREF="http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-
bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/1998/12/31/ED31890.DTL">
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/1998/1</A>
Look for more media coverage to come. The full text of Gene Emery's failed
psychic predictions is available on the CSICOP website at:
<A HREF="http://www.csicop.org/articles/psychic-
predictions/">http://www.csicop.org/articles/psychic-predictions/</A>
_______________
COUNCIL FOR MEDIA INTEGRITY STOCK FUND CONTINUES TO GROW
For information about the Media Stock Fund, contact Barry Karr at
skeptinq@aol.com or (716) 636-1425 x217.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
In its latest effort in the battle against uncritical presentations of the
paranormal and pseudoscientific in the media, the Committee for the Scientific
Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal (CSICOP) and it's "media watch-dog"
arm, the Council for Media Integrity (CMI), continue to expand the highly-
successful media stock fund.
Aimed at providing leverage for CSICOP's response to the entertainment
industry's lucrative commercial marketing of fringe science and psuedoscience,
CMI is asking friends and supporters to help it aquire common stock in media
conglomerate companies. The Media Stock Fund will allow CSICOP and the CMI to
take part in shareholder meetings, where it can question the increasing
infatuation with the paranormal in television programming.
"We are deliberately targeting each of the major television networks and
well-known media conglomerates - Westinghouse (CBS), General Electric (NBC),
NewsCorp (Fox), Time Warner (WB, Turner Broadcasting), and Disney (ABC)," says
Paul Kurtz, chairman of CSICOP. "The media have now virtually replaced the
schools, colleges, and universities as the main source of information for the
general public. The irresponsability of the media in the area of science and
the paranormal is a world wide problem. But it especially applies to the
United States, where the media have been distorting science and, in
particular, presenting psuedoscience as genuine science. Indeed, we are
appalled by the number of 'documentaries,' which are really entertainment
programs, presenting fringe science as real science."
The practice of organizing shareholder response within a company is common
among advocacy groups that seek socially responsible corporate conduct through
shareholder-passed resolutions. As a share-holder, CSICOP and the CMI will
have opportunities to attend shareholder meetings, submit viewpoints to
shareholder publications, and sponsor shareholder resolutions. While
exercising these and other rights, CSICOP will be representing a broad,
international constituency who support the critical investigation of the
paranormal and fringe-science claims from
a responsible, scientific viewpoint to the public at large.
"The fund will allow us to make shareholder meetings into accountablility
sessions for the media giants when they package superstition and psuedoscience
as fact," says Kurtz. "We realize that the media are being attacked from all
sides, but we think that a plea for raising the level of underatanding of
science should be heard."
CONTACT BARRY KARR AT 716-636-1425 X217 OR AT SKEPTINQ@AOL.COM FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
_________________
CONFERENCE: SCIENCE MEETS ALTERNATIVE MEDICINE
The following is advance notice of a February national conference held in
Philadelphia that gathers top scientists and physicians to take a critical
look at alternative medicine.
The conference features keynote addresses from Marcia Angell, MD, Executive
Editor of the New England Journal of Medicine and George Lundberg, MD, Editor
of the Journal of the American Medical Association(JAMA).
____________________________________________________________________
Skeptical Inquirer magazine and the journal Scientific Review of Alternative
Medicine Present:
SCIENCE MEETS ALTERNATIVE MEDICINE
A National Conference for Medical Professionals and Consumers
February 26-28, 1999
Warwick Hotel, Philadelphia
Call 1800-634-1610 to Register.
***Featuring Keynote Addresses by Marcia Angell, MD, Executive Editor of the
New England Journal of Medicine and George D. Lundberg, MD, Editor of the
Journal of the American Medical Association(JAMA).****
How strong (or weak) is the evidence? What's the impact on doctors and
patients?
What are the implications for medical ethics, government, and the media?
SCHEDULE
-FRI, FEB. 26-
7:00pm Reception
-SAT., FEB. 27-
8-830am Conference Opening Address
830-1100 Science and Alternative Medicine(AM);Exploring Points of Conflict
(Plenary)
Physics, Scientific Law, and Homeopathy
Biochemistry and Nutritional Supplements
Biology and 'Life Forces'
Clinical Errors in Alternative Medicine
11-1200Noon
Keynote Address:
George D. Lundberg, MD
Editor, Journal of the American Medical Association(JAMA)
2-500pm AM and the Psychology of Belief and Perception (Plenary)
The Psychology of Belief
Why Worthless Therapies Seem to Work
Personal Coversions to AM Therapies
7-900pm Banquet and Special Address
SUN., FEB 28
8-12noon Scientific Critiques of AM Therapies and Theories(Plenary)
The Crisis of Herbal Cures in Europe
Acupuncture
Chiropractic
Naturopathy
Mind/Body Therapies
Case Study: Herbs and Supplements
2-300pm Keynote Address: Marcia Angell, MD, Executive Editor of the New
England Journal of Medicine
300-5pm AM and Medical Ethics
Therapeutic Touch: What is the Harm?
The Ethics of Alternative Medicine
Is it Right to Promote Unproven Therapies?
300-500pm AM, Government, and the Law (Concurrent)
The FDA and Unproven Health Claims
Perils of the Marketplace: Profits, Hype and Harm
300-500pm Educating Physicians and Consumers
AM and Medical Journals
AM and Medical Schools
Critical Thinking for Physicians
Why We Need Better AM Research
Conference Speakers Include:
Wallace Sampson, Clincal Professor of Medicine at Stanford University, Editor
of SRAM; Paul Kurtz, Publisher of SRAM, Professor Emeritus, SUNY at Buffalo;
Marcia Angell, MD, Executive Editor, New England Journal of Medicine; George
Lundberg, MD, Editor of the Journal of the American Medical Association;
Robert Park, PhD, Executive Director, American Physical Society; Saul Green,
PhD, emeritus Professor of Biochemistry, Memorial-Sloan-Kettering Cancer
Institute, New York; John Renner, MD, Clinical Professor of Family Medicine,
University of Missouri, Kansas City; Barry Beyerstein, PhD, Dept. of
Psychology, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia; James Alcock,
PhD, Dept. of Psychology, Glendon College, York University; William Jarvis,
PhD, Executive Director, National Council Against Health Fraud; Stephen
Barrett, MD, Board Chairman of Quackwatch, Inc., and Board Member of the
National Council Against Health Fraud; Donal P. O'Mathuna, MD, Professor of
Bioethics and Chemistry, Mount Carmel College of Nursing, Columbus, Ohio;
Lawrence J. Schneiderman, MD, Professor of Family and Preventive Medicine,
University of California, San Diego School of Medicine; Lewis Vaughn,
Executive Editor, SRAM; Andrew Skolnick, Science Writer
ACCOMODATIONS AND TRAVEL INFORMATION
Rooms are available at the beautiful Warwick Hotel in Philadelphia at special
rates for conference attendees: $130 for a single, $145 for a double. For
reservations call (215) 735-6000, fax (215) 790-7766.
The Warwick is located at 1701 Locust Street. It is within walking distance
of the Liberty Bell, Independence Hall, Franklin Court, and the Betsy Ross
House. The Philadelphia Zoo is 20 minutes away.
REGISTRATION
$250 per person for all sessions Saturday and Sunday.
$125 per STUDENT for all sessions Saturday and Sunday.
$125 per person for DAY admission on only Saturday or Sunday.
BANQUET is $30 per person Saturday night, Feb. 27.
CREDIT CARD ORDERS MAY CALL TOLL FREE 1800-634-1610 OR FAX TO 716-636-1733.
FOR MORE INFORMATION CONTACT BARRY KARR AT 716-636-1425 X217 OR EMAIL
SKEPTINQ@AOL.COM
The Scientific Review of Alternative Medicine (SRAM) is a peer-reviewed
medical journal dedicated to providing scientific, rational evaluations of
unconventional health claims. Its purpose is to apply the best tools of
science and reason to determine the validity and effectiveness of treatments.
It will dismiss no claim a priori, but consider it on its own merits. It will
reject no claim because it fits, or fails to fit, some paradigm. It will,
using scientific methods and reasonable criteria, seek justified answers to
two questions: "Is it true?" and "Does this treatment work?" SRAM is
sponsored by the Council for Scientific Medicine.
__________________