Re: World Skeptics Congress Summary, Part 1
SkeptInq@aol.com
Wed, 5 Aug 1998 12:32:05 EDT
WORLD SKEPTICS CONGRESS SUMMARY, PART 1
The following is a partial summary of the World Skeptics Congress held July
23-26, 1998 in Heidelberg, Germany. The Congress was sponsored by the
Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal
(CSICOP) and the Gessellschaft zur wissenschaftlichen Untersuchung von
Parawissenschaften e.V. (GWUP). <A HREF="http://www.csicop.org/">
http://www.csicop.org/</A> <A HREF="http://www.gwup.org/">
http://www.gwup.org/</A>
Special thanks are given to GWUP Secretary and CSICOP Executive Council
member Amardeo Sarma for his tireless efforts in helping coordinate the
Congress.
--Opening Remarks and Alternative Medicine Session
--Astronomer Says Cosmic Impact Likely
--Experts Review Global Climate Threat
WORLD SKEPTICS CONGRESS CONVENES WITH PARTICIPANTS FROM FIVE CONTINENTS
Medical Expert Refutes Notion That Alternative Therapies Are Growing in Use
and Popularity. Scientists Emphasize Need for More Rigorous Studies and More
Rigorous Reporting.
July 23, HEIDELBERG, GERMANY -- At Heidelberg University, on the banks of the
Neckar River, some 300 skeptics, scientists, experts, and academics from North
America, Europe, Australia, China, Japan and Brazil convened today to discuss
and critically evaluate the latest claims of the paranormal and pseudoscience.
In opening remarks to the World Skeptics Congress, internationally recognized
skeptic leader Paul Kurtz, professor emeritus of philosophy at the State
University of New York at Buffalo and founding chairman of the Committee for
the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal (CSICOP), declared
that "skeptics want to focus on inquiry, not doubt. We insist that there be
sufficient evidence, rational coherence, or replicable experimental
confirmation of paranormal and pseudoscientific claims. These claims must
undergo rigorous peer review and corroboration before they are accepted."
Leading medical researchers' comments on the perceived growth of alternative
medicine (AM) in North America and Europe highlighted half-day plenary
sessions on topics that included millennial doomsday predictions and a
workshop on critical thinking.
North American and European experts underscored a crisis in medicine created
by a massive lack of evidence and lack of information available to the public
on alternative therapies. From poor or biased experimental design to "absolute
fakery," Wallace Sampson, M.D., clinical professor of medicine at Stanford
University and editor of the Scientific Review of Alternative Medicine,
outlined reasons why many studies allegedly proving alternative therapies are
flawed. "The best-quality papers and studies on such popular alternative
therapies as homeopathy and acupuncture show little effectiveness, while the
worst-quality papers and studies show the most effects."
Sampson emphasized that promoters of AM and the media often misquote and
misreport the findings of the latest studies. As examples, Sampson noted that,
contrary to popular claims, alternative therapy has not increased in
popularity over the last two decades. He refuted the notion that many
alternative therapies are more cost-effective than proven scientific
treatments. Sampson pointed to insurance-industry studies that name
chiropractic care -- often cited as the "most effective treatment for back
pain" -- as America's second-most expensive category of care provider, next to
neurosurgery.
Willem Betz, professor of medicine at the Free University of Brussels,
Belgium, echoed Sampson's comments when he discussed the state of AM in
Europe. Betz, a member of the European Committee of Science and Technology
(COST B4), said that the evaluation of AM on the continent "is not science,
but politics." The AM industry uses biased polling results to push AM
acceptance. "Their figures are suspect in promoting alternative therapies, but
their math is conventional when billing their patients." Betz described the AM
industry as now actively focusing on Eastern European markets.
Psychologist Barry Beyerstein reviewed the reasons why people believe in
bogus therapies. Beyerstein says that AM's enduring popularity stems from
widespread public scientific illiteracy, aggressive AM-industry marketing, New
Age faddishness, inadequate media criticism, a growing distrust of authority
that includes the scientific and medical establishment, and an anti-doctor
backlash. "Natural is considered safe. Though I like to remind people that
tobacco is a naturally occurring substance," Beyerstein told the audience.
Ways in which purveyors of alternative therapies fool themselves include the
human will to believe, the ubiquitous placebo effect, erroneous equations of
correlation with causation, over-reliance on anecdotal evidence, naturally
occurring self-healing, misdiagnosis, and the post hoc fallacy of
automatically assuming that treatments or nostrums triggered subsequent
recovery. "Many of these are confounding effects, examples of the classic
'disease of the week' misdiagnosis, and the failings of human logic."
The medical experts emphasized that the evaluation and eventual acceptance of
alternative therapies necessitate adequate sample size, random assignment of
patients, placebo-controlled trials, proper statistical treatment of data,
long-term follow-up, and multiple replication of studies.
The World Skeptics Congress continues through Sunday, July 26th, with
highlights tomorrow including plenary sessions on the threat of natural
disasters and the global warming/climate debate.
ASTRONOMER SAYS COSMIC IMPACT THREAT LIKELY.
Calls for Increased Efforts and Funding for Identification of Near-Earth
Objects.
July 24, HEIDELBERG, GERMANY -- Recent Hollywood films Deep Impact and
Armageddon have highlighted the threat from cosmic collisions, but the
findings of science underscore the need for increased funding for identifying
near-earth objects (NEOs). In a presentation this morning, James McGaha,
retired USAF Major and director of the Grasslands Observatory of Arizona,
estimated the risk of dying from a cosmic impact in one's lifetime as 1 in
20,000, a risk equivalent to the chance of dying in a plane crash. "The threat
from cosmic impact is real and hazardously dismissed by the public and
decision-makers," said McGaha.
There are some 300 identified NEOs on collision paths with the earth, but
there are an estimated 9,000 unknown NEOs of .5 km or greater in size. The
warning time before collision of a previously unknown NEO would be less than
80 days for a comet and less than 30 days for an asteroid. The impact of a 2
km NEO with the earth would result in catastrophic earthquakes, tsunamis, sun-
blocking clouds of dust and ash, dramatic drops in temperature, global crop
failure, and widespread starvation. More than 25 percent of the earth's human
population would perish.
McGaha emphasized that further funding and research needs to be devoted to
locating NEOs and developing/testing means of diversion. Currently the U.S.
government devotes just $1.5 million to NEO research, with NASA recently
approving a marginal increase to $3 million for next year. Testing diversion
methods is of special importance, noted McGaha. Once within a close enough
range with the earth, no diversion means will have a life-saving effect.
McGaha also pointed out that since space is a vacuum, there is considerably
less energy transferred in a nuclear explosion, necessitating testing on the
magnitude of detonation. "I think we should shoot a nuclear weapon out to the
asteroid belt and test it," said McGaha.
David Morrison, CSICOP Fellow and director of space at NASA Ames Research
Center, is part of a team of scientists lobbying Congress for funding for a
much needed "Space Guard" project that would fund six telescopes around the
globe to search for and find all NEOs. (For more on the NEO threat, go to
<A HREF="http://impact.arc.nasa.gov/">http://impact.arc.nasa.gov/</A>)
Science is the only major interest group in the U.S. without an organized
lobby. Government funding for science is very limited. Such pressing realities
as the threat from NEOs and sparse budgeting for science make a recent report
by the Society for Scientific Exploration (SSE) advocating government support
for UFO research appear ridiculous. "Why fund mystery-mongering over UFOs when
NEOs are real threats in our skies that go almost totally unheeded?" observed
McGaha.
EXPERTS REVIEW GLOBAL CLIMATE THREATS
Greenhouse Effect May Trigger Global Cooling. Improved Energy Efficiency
Through Deregulation Key to Combating Emissions.
HEIDELBERG, GERMANY, JULY 24-- In afternoon presentations, two experts, one
from academia, the other from business, forecasted the future of the Earth's
climate. William Calvin, a neurophysiologist at the University of
Washington, outlined the potential threat of what he calls the "The Great
Climate Flip-Flop", the abrupt cooling of the Earth that could result in
widespread crop failure, dramatic landscape change and genocidal battles among
nations for food resources.
"No serious scientist wants to be seen as a prophet of doom, but this is not
a prediction, this is history" said Calvin, who first became interested in the
topic through studying the climate's influence on human brain development.
The most dangerous result of global warming could be the triggering of a
modern ice age. The Earth's climate is currently in a cooling period, which
began about 15,000 years ago. Contrary to popular belief, global temperature
change is fairly quick and dramatic. The last warm period started 130,000
years ago, when it ended with an abrupt cooling effect. Now the Earth is due
for another plummet in temperature, a change that could be sparked by the
effect of global warming on currents that form a "heat engine" for the north
Atlantic. "This is not a prediction, this is history" warned Calvin.
Much of the warming effect of northern latitudes, including Europe, is
created by a powerful North Atlantic current that flows from the tropics to
Greenland. The current endows Europe, a continent that shares the same
latitude with Canada, with a temperate enough climate to support a population
of 650 million.
Calvin described the North Atlantic current as a conveyer belt, delivering
warm surface water to northern regions. Salt-heavy, the current reaches
northern latitudes near Greenland, sinks and travels south to be recycled in
waters as far away as the Pacific.
A Greenhouse-generated warming effect can cause cooling by dumping large
amounts of fresh water into the ocean, and interrupting the conveyer belt flow
of water in the North Atlantic. Under Greenhouse warming conditions, large
amounts of fresh water enter the ocean through increased high-latitude rain
fall and melting ice. Shifts in the ice flow can also cause blockages in
fjords and other waterways, resulting in the buildup and then sudden release
of millions of gallons of freshwater into the Atlantic.
"We cannot avoid trouble by simply cutting down on our current contribution
to the Greenhouse warming trend. We need to identify the important feedback
effects that control climate and ocean currents" warned Calvin. Possible
global cooling prevention strategies include opening channels through fjord
ice dams, seeding clouds to deliver rain away from North Atlantic areas of
sinking water, regulating the Mediterranean Sea's salty outflow, and digging a
wide sea level Panama Canal.
When asked why discussion of the Climate Flip-flop scenario has not received
greater attention in the media, Calvin observed wryly that "Hollywood
catastrophe movies co-opt the marketplace for discussion of possible futures."
TRIGEN ENERGY CEO OUTLINES ENERGY EFFICIENCY STRATEGIES
A top advisor to President Clinton on global warming, New York-based Trigen
Energy CEO and President Tom Casten outlined his outlook on defeating the
Greenhouse gas problem through improved energy efficiency. Citing as evidence
a correlation between increases in world population and increases in CO2 gas
and water vapor, Casten declared that "there is a greenhouse gas problem. I
think human kind is rolling some very big dice, and the question is what do we
do?"
U.S. contribution to CO2 gas emission equals 25% of the world total, and
Casten noted that U.S. waste in power generation exceeds Japan's total fuel
use. "There is market failure across the world. Power generation is
drastically inefficient. The best environmental strategy ever devised is
efficiency: Don't burn the fuel."
Current U.S. energy efficiency is at 33%, with the country reaching peak
energy efficiency in 1959. In comparison, Denmark operates at 50% efficiency.
"It is an appalling record when you look at advances in computing, jet planes
and other technologies."
Casten pointed to government protection of utility monopolies as causing
disincentives to improved energy use and production. "We've protected our
companies from competitiveness, and you get what you reward. If you don't
reward the energy industry, you won't get efficiency."
Casten stated that new energy regulations should emphasize input versus
performance standards in efficiency and pollution. Government efforts also
have to target phasing-out and cleaning up decades old powerplants. Many of
the older powerplants are grandfathered in emissions compliance allowing them
to be more than 100 times more polluting than new facilities.
In an effort to reduce costs, Casten recommended that barriers to competition
be eliminated. But since increasing competition will not induce companies to
seek optimal environmental solutions, regulations need to guide power
companies with efficiency standards. Finally, Casten suggested that megawatt
hours of electricity have to be less and less dependent on fossil fuels.
Trigen Energy uses tri-generation of electricity, steam and cooled water to
build power plants that are 91% efficient. Serving more than 1,500 customers
at 22 locations in North America, Trigen provides heating, cooling and
electricity with one half the fossil fuel and one half the pollution of
conventional generation. <A HREF="http://www.trigen.com/">
http://www.trigen.com/</A>
Trigen CEO Tom Casten is a member of the CSICOP Board of Directors and
Executive Council.